Wahoo Posted October 1, 2023 Posted October 1, 2023 Welcome to Wahoo’s comprehensive CBB season preview. We will be going over my preseason Top 25, national awards predictions, top 10 games to watch, conference rankings, all-conference teams, and projected postseason seeds. Some disclaimers to start: my team rankings and award predictions are based on the proprietary Wahoo Ability Ranking model (WAR™). Through a top-secret formula, I assign each player a rating. My formula has different weightings based on what I view as more or less important. These weightings are different from Tuscan’s weightings, and likely different from what you would choose. My weightings do tilt towards offensive ability over other factors, so you will often see teams with a few great shooters outrank teams with great defense or many average shooters. Players are also not ranked based only on their Overall rating; there are many situations where a C overall is rated higher than a B overall based on their individual attributes. The top 8 players on a team contribute to a team’s ranking, with a heavier weighting on the starting 5. I do not account for positions; I assume that most teams will find a gameplan that will work to get their best players on the court. However, a team’s ranking could theoretically be made up of 5 centers, which would obviously not be a valid lineup. AI teams may also not value their players the same way I do and default to different gameplans and lineups. However, I do believe my system gives a general sense of the talent that would be playing for each team. And if you disagree, then make your own formula! Let’s get into it, starting with the preseason top 25, conference strength, national awards. Preseason Top 25 Preseason Top 25 1 Villanova Big East 2 Army Patriot 3 San Francisco West Coast 4 Colorado State Mountain West 5 Wisconsin Big 10 6 Kansas Big 12 7 Purdue Big 10 8 South Alabama Sun Belt 9 UC Irvine Big West 10 Utah PAC 12 11 Eastern Michigan MAC 12 Davidson Atlantic 10 13 Iowa State Big 12 14 Fresno State Mountain West 15 UMBC America East 16 Southern Miss Sun Belt 17 BYU Big 12 18 Buffalo MAC 19 Baylor Big 12 20 Western Michigan MAC 21 Missouri SEC 22 Pittsburgh ACC 23 Wyoming Mountain West 24 Seton Hall Big East 25 Navy Patriot There is a great diversity of conferences amongst the preseason Top 25 with 14 different conferences having at least one team ranked. The Big 12 leads the way with 4 teams ranked, followed by the MAC and Mountain West with 3. The Big 10 is the only conference to put 2 teams into the Top 10. The Big East, Patriot League, and Sun Belt also have multiple ranked teams. Villanova and Army lead the way in the top 2 positions, being some of the few schools with 3 A-rated players on their roster. Villanova gets the nod with a bevy of support behind their top 3 players, while Army’s roster is noticeably thinner in depth. No team is more top loaded than San Francisco, though. A nation-leading 4 A-rated players don the Dons jersey, but there is little else on the roster that shows promise. How much of a drop off will we see in SF’s play when their stars aren’t on the court? Colorado State could have the best 1-2 punch in the country with Jr. C Andree Mann, a projected first-team All-American, and (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell, a projected second-team All-American. Army is the only other squad with 2 players on the projected All-American teams, placing Jr. PF Jack Beckmann on the first-team and Sr. PG Reginald Gray on the third-team. Wisconsin rounds out the preseason Top 5 with 2 A overalls backed up by plenty of support. Conference Strength The Big 12 may have more preseason ranked teams, but the ACC looks to be the most competitive conference overall. Only Pittsburgh cracked the Top 25 at #22, but 9 other teams rank inside the Top 65. With Virginia ranked at 75, the ACC could feasibly have 11 teams competing for tournament bids. However, my pick for best conference in the nation would go to the MAC. Eastern Michigan, Buffalo, and Western Michigan all rank in the Top 25, Bowling Green just missed the cut at #26, and a total of 7 teams are in the Top 60. This conference features 2 projected All-Americans and Toledo, a team with 3 A overalls that projects at 6th (!) in the conference. The MAC conference champion will have certainly earned their title at the end of the season. Conference Highest Ranked Lowest Ranked Average ACC 22 152 70.9 MAC 11 168 71.8 Sun Belt 8 157 77.7 Mountain West 4 172 82.2 Big Ten 5 170 82.5 Pac-12 10 163 85.4 WCC 3 164 86.8 Big East 1 159 90.8 SEC 21 171 93.4 American 28 161 95.8 Big 12 6 154 102.9 A10 12 173 105.5 C-USA 36 321 145.5 AEC 15 342 213.9 Summit League 84 345 215.7 Patriot 2 347 216.4 WAC 42 311 221.7 ASUN 44 353 240.5 Big West 9 330 247.1 Big South 187 335 254.3 NEC 181 352 255.4 MVC 136 359 259.4 Big Sky 189 343 266.3 SoCon 177 354 271.8 SWAC 183 360 272.2 Colonial Athletic 192 362 273.9 OVC 176 357 276.5 Horizon League 180 349 280.0 Ivy League 206 338 281.3 Southland 175 363 281.4 MEAC 194 358 283.6 Independent 185 364 286.0 MAAC 193 361 287.2 National Awards First Team All-Americans PF Christopher Merlo Jr Nebraska C Henry Gonzales Sr UC Irvine PF Jack Beckmann Jr Army SF Jonathan Hughes Sr Colorado C Andre Mann Jr Colorado State Second Team All-Americans PF Felipe Raymond Sr UTEP C Christopher Netninn Jr Bowling Green C Jose Guadian Sr Syracuse SF Jules Stillwell (Sr) Colorado State PG William Smith Sr St. John’s Third Team All-Americans C Robert Lampe Jr UMBC SF Glenn Everett Jr Central Michigan PG Reginald Gray Sr Army SF Craig Bennett Jr Iowa State PF Aziz Chea Sr South Carolina Wooden Award Winner PF Christopher Merlo Jr Nebraska All-Freshman Team SF Matthew Cooper Fr Tulane PF Giovanni Giorgio Fr South Alabama C Shankar Chen Fr West Virginia PF Jesse Strickland Fr Georgetown SF Andy Le Fr Seattle We have talked a lot about the collections of star power at the top teams in the country, but the best player in the nation may reside on a team that will be right on the bubble. Jr. PF Christopher Merlo will look to carry a Nebraska team dangerously thin on depth to the promised land. The only knocks on Merlo’s game is his tendency to be a little loose with the ball, but he makes up for it by excelling in all other categories of the game. While Merlo is our pick for best overall player, Colorado State’s (Sr.) SF Jules Stillwell is the best pure scorer. Stillwell can knock down a shot from anywhere on the court and has the skills to dribble to the rim if the defense isn’t ready. He takes some time off on defense but is still able to stay with the best players. With Jr. C Andre Mann also garnering a lot of the defense’s attention, Stillwell should have plenty of opportunities to rack up his box score stats. Top 10 Games to Watch 10. Army at Navy - Week 13 9. Eastern Michigan at Western Michigan - Week 10 8. Wisconsin at Baylor - Week 2 7. UMBC at San Francisco - Week 12 6. South Alabama at Davidson - Week 5 5. Colorado State at Fresno State - Week 13 4. Utah at Kansas - Week 3 3. Wisconsin at UC Irvine - Week 1 2. Wisconsin at Purdue - Week 13 1. Villanova at Kansas - Week 5 5 2
Rocketcan Posted October 5, 2023 Posted October 5, 2023 Ranked? Please don't put that pressure on me.
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